Decide with markets that reward accurate forecasts.
teleon.dev/docs/futarchy runs LMSR prediction markets on internal decisions and weights each stake by the forecaster's Brier record, so forecasters with a record of accuracy move prices most.
Brier-weighted stakes put S3-FIFO ahead. When the latency result arrives, the market resolves and every forecaster's record updates.
What it does
A price for every option
The LMSR market maker quotes a price for each outcome at all times, so even small markets trade.
Stakes weighted by accuracy
Each forecaster's stake counts by their Brier record, so calibrated forecasters weigh more.
Resolved against outcomes
When the measured result arrives, the market resolves and every forecaster's Brier score updates.
The contract
A market names the decision, its options, the LMSR liquidity parameter and the measured outcome that resolves it.
LMSRteleon_extensible_evaluations
Endpoints
| Method | Path | Access | What it does | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
GET | /v1/futarchy/markets | RING-3 | List open markets and their prices | |
POST | /v1/futarchy/markets/{id}/stakes | RING-2 | Stake on an outcome | |
POST | /v1/futarchy/markets/{id}/resolve | RING-1 | Resolve a market against the measured outcome |
Listed paths appear in the service’s published files today. This surface comes from the Teleon Omnibus Codex v1.0 to v50.0, Oct 25, 2026. In the one-host plan every path here is served under api.teleon.dev/v1/futarchy.
For agents
Give your agent the read-only guide first. It reports back before any write.
Words on this page
- LMSR
- Logarithmic market scoring rule: an automated market maker that always quotes a price for each outcome. Prices read as probabilities.
- Brier score
- The mean squared error of probability forecasts. Lower is better, and a perfect forecaster scores 0.
- Futarchy
- Deciding with markets: each option is priced by what forecasters expect it to do for a measured goal.